Drones, oil and escalation: Ukraine’s deep strikes impact Russia, altering war calculations
KYIV Ukraine AP At a secret location in rural Ukraine columns of attack drones are assembled at night and in near silence to strike deep inside Russia Their targets are strategic oil refineries fuel depots and military logistics hubs Since the summer Ukraine s long-range drone campaign has ramped up dramatically pounding power infrastructure across Russia and stretching Moscow s air defenses thin Built from parts made in a scattered configuration of workshops these drones now fly much further than at any point in the war Officers in body armor move with quick precision headlamps glow red to stay hidden Engines sputter like old motorcycles as exhaust fumes drift into the moonless night Minutes later one after another the drones lift from a makeshift runway and head east The strikes have caused gasoline shortages in Russia even forcing rationing in various regions and underscoring a growing vulnerability in the country s infrastructure Drones hammer refineries Western analysts say the attacks on ability infrastructure so far have had a serious but not crippling effect Ukrainian drones have repeatedly hit major Russian refineries representing about of the country s nominal refining maximum according to a up-to-date review by the Carnegie Endowment a U S -based think tank But it argues the actual impact has been considerably more limited most of plants resumed operations within weeks and Russia s refining output has been cushioned by idle ceiling and existing fuel surpluses The deep strikes have however given Kyiv the initiative at an pivotal moment The United States and Europe are ramping up sanctions on Russia s oil industry even as Kyiv s request for U S long-range Tomahawk missiles has stalled President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine s improved long-range strike capability is causing real damage forcing the Kremlin to import fuel and curb exports We believe they ve lost up to of their gasoline supply directly as a impact of our strikes he communicated reporters at a briefing in Kyiv At the secret launch site the commander overseeing the operation a broad-shouldered man identified by his call sign Fidel in accordance with Ukrainian military regulations watches through night-vision goggles as the drones climb into the star-filled sky Drones are evolving Fidel described The Associated Press Instead of flying kilometers miles now they fly Three factors go into a accomplished operation the drones the people and the planning We want to deliver the best development For us this is a holy mission Ukraine thrives on no-frills weapons Much of Ukraine s fleet is homegrown The Liutyi a workhorse of the nightly attacks is a waist-high craft with a sausage-shaped body a propeller at the back and a distinctive triangular tail It looks neither sleek nor intimidating more Home Depot than Lockheed Martin but the ease of assembly means it can be kept hidden and constantly tweaked optimized to slip through heavily monitored frontline airspace Typical of Ukraine s no-frills war production philosophy the Liutyi whose name means fierce in Ukrainian has become a symbol of national pride and in the last few days featured on a local postage stamp The reach of these drones with various models doubling in range over the past year to routinely strike targets within a -kilometer radius of the confines marks a shift in the geography of the conflict Attacks a year ago damaged refineries in a much narrower range mostly in western Russian confines regions Costs have also come down further testing expensive air defense systems with long-range drones now being produced in Ukraine for as little as A shift in conflict geography What we re seeing is that Ukraine is getting better at taking the war inside Russia announced Adriano Bosoni director of analysis at RANE a global vulnerability analysis firm For greater part of the war Russia operated on the assumption that its own territory was safe That s no longer the episode The strategic logic is attrition by logistics he argued by forcing Russia to reroute supplies and commit air defenses to a wider area Kyiv seeks to degrade Moscow s maximum to sustain large-scale operations The Paris-based International Strength Agency says repeated drone strikes have cut Russia s refining threshold by about barrels a day That s triggered domestic fuel shortages and curbed exports of diesel and jet fuel even as overall global oil production remains steady and prices stable Kyiv s homegrown strike capability allows independent drone launches bypassing the Western approval required for imported long-range weapons That autonomy preceded tougher sanctions on Russia allies escalated only after Ukraine had spent months hitting Russian refineries On the ground each mission is a inquiry in tradeoffs Fewer than of drones even reach the target area so meticulous planning is essential explained Fidel who reflected on the human cost War has fallen to our generation so that we can fight for our kids and they can live in a free democratic country he stated We are at present obtaining experience that will be used by every country in the world and we are paying the price with our lives and the lives of our friends Associated Press journalists Hanna Arhirova Evgeniy Maloletka Dmytro Zhyhinas and Alex Babenko contributed to this analysis from Ukraine Follow AP s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https apnews com hub russia-ukraine Source
